Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

: February 2025 experienced significant volatility spikes at the start and end, with a calm mid-month period indicating market sensitivity to external factors.

: US president Donald Trump's tariff announcements drove sharp reactions in crypto and traditional markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these asset classes.

: Despite a trend of decreasing volatility, low levels can precede sharp price movements. Traders must stay informed about macroeconomic developments that could impact market dynamics.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

February 2025 presented a unique landscape for cryptocurrency volatility, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC). The month can be divided into three distinct phases: a volatile beginning, a calm middle and a tumultuous end. At the outset, BTC witnessed significant price corrections due to macroeconomic factors, particularly President Trump’s announcements regarding tariffs on neighboring countries. These announcements triggered sharp reactions within both crypto and traditional markets, leading to a spike in realized volatility.

Midway through the month, however, BTC's volatility dropped to a historically low level of 29%. This period of subdued volatility was notable, as it marked the lowest level of realized volatility BTC had experienced in nearly 18 months. This calm phase belied the underlying tensions in the market, as traders remained cautious but still anticipated further developments regarding economic policies. The low volatility during this period reflected a temporary stabilization, but it was clear that external factors were still at play, creating an environment ripe for speculation.

As February 2025 drew to a close, volatility surged again, largely driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and specific developments in the crypto space. By the end of the month, Bitcoin’s price had fallen below $80K, and Ethereum (ETH) had lost all of its gains since the November 2024 US elections. This dramatic shift underscored the volatile nature of the crypto market, and highlighted the speed with which market sentiment can change in response to new information.

February’s volatility wasn’t merely a product of internal market dynamics: it was also heavily influenced by macroeconomic events. President Trump's tariff policies created significant uncertainty, affecting traditional markets and the crypto space. The market reacted sharply to these announcements, with crypto assets often acting as leading indicators for broader market movements. The initial announcement of tariffs led to a wave of selling, as traders sought to de-risk their positions ahead of anticipated market corrections.

Throughout the month, several key announcements contributed to volatility. For example, the tariffs on steel and aluminum and the uncertainty over their implementation created a speculative environment. Traders were particularly sensitive to these developments, leading to pronounced price movements in both crypto and equities. This interconnectedness illustrates the growing relationship between crypto markets and traditional financial systems, as macroeconomic factors can have profound impacts on asset prices across the board.

The volatility patterns observed during February 2025 also reflect a broader trend whereby external economic factors shape market sentiment. The anticipation of policy changes and macroeconomic developments created an environment of hypervigilance for traders, who were ready to react to any news that could influence market conditions. This heightened sensitivity underscores the need for market participants to stay informed about macroeconomic trends and policy announcements, as these factors are likely to continue influencing volatility in the future.

Persistent sensitivity to external catalysts

Despite a long-term trend of decreasing volatility in the crypto market, February 2025 made it clear that significant macroeconomic and policy-driven catalysts can still provoke sharp price movements. The month began and ended with pronounced volatility spikes driven by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies, demonstrating that even in a generally declining volatility environment, external factors can have outsized impacts.

Low volatility levels experienced in the middle of February, when BTC's realized volatility dropped to 29%, serve as a reminder that calm periods can be deceptive. The historical context of this floor level indicates that such low volatility often precedes significant reversals. As market participants observed the rising volatility toward the end of February, it became evident that the calm was likely temporary — and that uncertainty was increasing.

Looking ahead, expectations of volatility in the crypto market have rebounded in response to ongoing economic uncertainties. The announcement regarding Trump’s proposed strategic crypto asset stockpile further complicated market dynamics. Initially, traders anticipated new demand for crypto assets, but the clarification that the stockpile wouldn't involve new purchases led to disappointment and a swift decline in implied volatility — a scenario that illustrates the complex interplay between market expectations and actual policy actions.

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Bybit X Block Scholes options volatility report (February 2025): Market braces for imminent volatility

Bitcoin fell from an all-time high in January 2025 to $80K, leading to widespread fear in the market, the first significant correction since the US presidential election in November 2024. 

Bitcoin fell from an all-time high in January 2025 to $80K, leading to widespread fear in the market, the first significant correction since the US presidential election in November 2024. In this article, we help you decipher the reasons and what to expect next.

Disappointment toward strategic Bitcoin reserve leads to earlier profit realization

The announcement of a proposed US Bitcoin strategic reserve, which was anticipated to boost investor confidence, turned out to be less impactful than expected. Analysts noted that it’s merely a repackaging of seized assets, which didn’t provide the strong catalyst for recovery many had hoped for.

Persistent inflation has led to increased caution among investors. With inflation rates rising again since January 2025, the market has become more cautious about stagnation.

Higher inflationary expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes have contributed to market volatility. Anticipation of interest rate cuts has substantially fallen, which has prompted institutional investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as reflected in the continuous capital outflows from spot ETFs.

Last but not least, recent US tariff policies have raised concerns about economic slowdowns, adding to fears of a recession and further pressuring the crypto market. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a barometer of economic growth, showed a sharp drop in February 2025, leading to fear of a potential economic downturn.

Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market, and recent trends indicate a significant shift toward fear and uncertainty.

The crypto fear & greed index has dropped to a nearly three-year low of 10, reflecting heightened investor fear. Historically, such low sentiment levels have preceded market bottoms, suggesting that while the current downturn is severe, it may also present 

The market saw substantial liquidations last week, with over $637 million wiped out in a single day. Leveraged trading has exacerbated this selling pressure since many traders have been forced to close positions as prices fall, further driving prices down.

Don't fret — it might be a healthy correction

The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and corrections are a natural part of its cycle. Bitcoin, for example, has seen a significant drop from its peak of $109,000 in January 2025 to around $78,650 as of Mar 11, 2025, marking a nearly 25% decline. Such corrections are common in crypto, where prices can fluctuate dramatically within short periods.

Analysts are closely monitoring key support levels. If Bitcoin fails to hold around $78,000, it could fall further to approximately $71,000 to $72,000, which is seen as the top of the pre-election trading range. This technical analysis indicates that the market is still in a correction phase within a broader bull market context.

The recent downturn in the US stock market, with equity falling 20% from its previous high, has been mirrored in the crypto space. As stock market futures have fallen sharply, cryptocurrencies have also experienced declines, indicating a growing risk-off sentiment among investors, who should thus look at the increasing correlation between BTC and equities.

Ongoing global economic concerns, including geopolitical tensions and potential recessions, have increased investors' caution, resulting in a broader sell-off across various asset classes — including cryptocurrencies.

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Why crypto’s prices decrease, and what’s next

In this article, we look at the key macroeconomic releases in the US this week, such as jobs numbers, CPI and PPI, and how it could affect markets.

Fears of a US recession and a global trade war have triggered significant downturns in the crypto and stock markets over the past month. As the Trump administration's policies fuel a "period of transition," financial markets are entering a "detox period" characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty. Meanwhile, this is a critical week for investors, with multiple US economic reports being released by Mar 14, 2025.

In this article, Bybit will introduce you to the key macro trends shaping financial markets and crypto prices. You’ll also learn which of this week’s economic reports are the most important to be aware of.

Amid falling stock and crypto prices and market uncertainty, this week is important for investors, with multiple key economic reports being released between March 10 and 14. 

These are the most crucial macro events to watch this week:

A new job openings report was released on Mar 11, 2025, showing that 

 were added in January, bringing total openings to 7.74 million. This signals a resilient labor market, which could have implications for inflation and interest rate expectations.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming reports on 

 on March 12 and the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) on March 13 for further clues on inflation trends. If inflation remains elevated, it could influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, potentially delaying rate cuts that markets have been anticipating. This could lead to short-term volatility across equities and crypto, as higher interest rates generally make risk assets less attractive to investors.

Despite a strong start this year, the crypto market has taken a significant hit since early February. As of Mar 12, 2025, the combined cryptocurrency market cap

 over the past seven days and 15.24% in the past 30 days. 

Here's how the prices of some major coins have changed:

This market sell-off has triggered a large number of liquidations, 

 over the past 24 hours. Additionally, the 

 has fluctuated between "Fear" and "Extreme Fear" since Feb 25, 2025. This suggests that investors feel pressure to sell their cryptocurrency, driving digital asset prices down.

Cryptocurrency isn’t the only asset class that has recently experienced a significant downturn. In fact, the crypto sell-off is primarily being driven by global market turmoil that has also triggered a stock market downturn within the past few weeks.

The S&P 500 (GSPC), Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) — three of the major stock market indices — are down by 8.18%, 10.94% and 7.09%, respectively, over the past 30 days. What's more, the NDX had its 

 within 24 hours, and the “Magnificent Seven” stocks 

But why did crypto and US stocks fall so heavily over the past month? The answer lies in new warnings that the US economy could be 

. Moreover, investors fear that President Donald Trump's tariffs could lead to a global trade war.

Since his inauguration on Jan 20, 2025, Trump has introduced a 

 on US steel and aluminum imports. Moreover, he’s introduced nation-specific measures against 

Also, the Trump administration is drastically cutting US government spending by 

 and other measures. These policies, combined with the impacts of a brewing trade war, are fueling market volatility and uncertainty in the short term.

, warning of short-term pain for financial markets. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, these moves aim to rebalance the economy and could lead to a "detox period."

Intermediate

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Macro this week: Key releases amid recession fear

AI-DOL Superstar Trading Battle is a premier trading and voting event aiming to support emerging AI crypto projects. Find out more about the five key AI mentors helping to shape the future of AI.

The AI-DOL Superstar Trading Battle is a premier AI-driven event hosted by Bybit. It serves as a launchpad for emerging AI-powered crypto projects, offering them a chance to secure a Bybit Spot listing and gain industry recognition.

A key element of the event is its mentorship program, through which leading AI projects provide strategic guidance to new entrants. These mentors offer expertise in AI-driven trading, governance and 

 (DApps), helping promising startups refine their solutions and achieve long-term sustainability.

What is the Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR event?

The Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle is a unique event that merges artificial intelligence (AI) with blockchain, creating a competitive space for AI-driven crypto projects to gain visibility and adoption.

This event not only fosters innovation in AI and blockchain, but also rewards participants who engage in trading and voting.

The mentorship program is a core pillar of the AI-DOL Trading Battle, pairing AI startups with experienced industry leaders. These mentorships help AI projects refine their algorithms, governance models and trading strategies — key factors for long-term success in web3.

Here’s a look at the five key AI mentors shaping the future of AI-powered crypto:

Luna by Virtuals (LUNAI) — the AI-driven digital performer

Luna by Virtuals is a livestreaming AI influencer built on Virtuals Protocol. Originally part of an AI-powered K-pop group, Luna has over 500,000 TikTok followers, showcasing that AI-driven personalities can thrive in entertainment and web3.

Luna by Virtuals demonstrates the power of AI in digital engagement, which explores AI-driven media, decentralized content creation and tokenized engagement models. This highlights the intersection of AI, blockchain and social influence in web3.

Top Hat (HAT) — the no-code AI agent builder

Top Hat is a Solana-based AI launchpad that enables anyone to create AI agents and tokens without coding expertise. It features simplified crypto analytics, algorithmic trading and token automation, making AI technology accessible to non-technical users.

Top Hat focuses on market predictions, algorithmic trading and smart contract automation. This empowers startups to develop scalable and efficient AI trading solutions for web3.

Cookie DAO (COOKIE) — web3 AI governance and data intelligence

Cookie DAO is a decentralized AI and data governance platform that optimizes AI-driven marketing, analytics and web3 intelligence. It allows 

 data, improving automation and decision-making.

Cookie DAO integrates AI-powered governance models and data analytics into its blockchain projects, thus enhancing scalability and transparency.

ai16z (AI16Z) — AI research fund and web3 incubator

ai16z develops AI investment strategies, funding models and AI-powered blockchain applications, helping emerging projects secure financing and navigate the AI-driven crypto ecosystem. Its AI-focused venture capital and incubation platform combines community-driven funding with AI-powered decision-making, giving it a significant role in accelerating AI adoption in web3.

Alchemist AI (ALCH) — AI-powered no-code development

Alchemist AI is a decentralized AI development platform that enables natural language-based application creation. By leveraging AI and blockchain, it allows users to build, deploy and monetize AI models without expertise in coding.

Alchemist AI optimizes AI training models, automation frameworks and decentralized AI applications, bridging the gap between AI research and real-world blockchain adoption.

The AI-DOL Superstar Trading Battle isn’t just a competition — it’s a launchpad for AI innovation. Mentors help AI startups scale their projects by providing expert guidance, advanced trading strategies and governance models.

Ready to join the AI-DOL Superstar Trading Battle? 

, trade and vote — and support the next AI revolution in web3 now!

Beginner

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Who are the Mentors in Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR?

Daily Bits

Synthetix has launched SNAXchain, an app chain aimed at providing cross-chain liquidity and trading fee revenue for SNX stakers and on-chain trading products.

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Last week, the SPX index was down by 4.25%, The decline was led by semiconductor and energy stocks, as weak US manufacturing and labor market data heightened concerns about a slowing economy. Investors are now awaiting key inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was up by 1.35%, with Bitcoin and Ether rising by 0.09% and 0.15%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is FTM, which surged 8.5% following the launch of Sonic Labs' testnet with 106 million transactions and a developer bounty program.

Sonic Labs (FTM), founded in 2018, formerly known as Fantom Foundation, supports the development of Sonic, a new layer-1 blockchain designed for fast, efficient transactions and secure connectivity to Ethereum. It focuses on creating decentralized applications and managing governance for the Sonic ecosystem, which is set to launch later in the year. 

, processing over 106 million transactions. The testnet achieved 70 million blocks with an average block time of 0.45 seconds and a finality time of 0.76 seconds, making it one of the fastest EVM blockchains. The FTM token, set to be replaced by the S token, dropped 1.2% to $0.37 despite a recent upward trend. Sonic Labs focuses on dApp development, while the Sonic Foundation oversees governance. The rebrand follows a $10 million funding round, and Sonic Labs also introduced a bounty program, Sonic Boom, to encourage developer participation until Nov. 4.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

, an app chain aimed at providing cross-chain liquidity and trading fee revenue for SNX stakers and on-chain trading products. Initially serving as a governance hub for Synthetix’s deployments on Ethereum and L2 networks like Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base, SNAXchain plans to expand functionality to include SNX staking and cross-chain liquidity by Q4. Built on Optimism’s Superchain, SNAXchain uses Conduit and Wormhole for cross-chain messaging. Synthetix aims to differentiate itself in Arbitrum’s DeFi derivatives market by accepting various tokens as collateral.

From September 2-6, 2024, BTC Spot ETF experienced a total net outflow of $706.1 million, with $160.7 million from GBTC-related investments and $545.4 million from non-GBTC investments. The current total stands at a net of $16.9 billion, combining $20.0 billion in GBTC outflows and $36.9 billion in non-GBTC inflows.

 a 500 million token supply with 10% allocated for an airdrop. The first distribution, on August 9th, was in the form of NFTs, redeemable for tokens at TGE. The project's treasury holds 57%, with some reserved for future airdrops. To be eligible for future airdrops, users can register a name, link it to their SUI wallet, and set it as their default.

Synthetix Launches SNAXchain for Cross-Chain Liquidity and Governance

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards